HAYEF: Journal of Education
Research Articles

An Investigation of 5-Year-Old Children’s Reasoning About Probability


Department of Child Development, Ege University Ödemiş Faculty of Health Sciences, İzmir, Türkiye

HAYEF: Journal of Education 2023; 20: 231-239
DOI: 10.5152/hayef.2023.23039
Read: 892 Downloads: 389 Published: 05 October 2023

This intrinsic case study was conducted to investgate 5-years-old children’s thoughts about probability. In this context, children’s predictons about probabilistc trials, their choices on probabilistc trials, inferences about the consequences of probabilistc trials, reasonings about complementary events, consideratons on the recurrence of trials, and mathematcal appropriateness of children’s responses were detailly investgated. Twenty-four children (63- to 70-month-olds) partcipated in this study. A progressive game played with the help of wheel mechanisms, a short story about probabilistc situatons, and a set having interview-based procedures (Probabilistc Trials for Five-Year-Old Children) were used as data collecton tools. Summatve content analysis was used to analyze the data. Children’s thoughts about probability were categorized under diferent categories. Coefcient of interrater reliability was found to be as .87 according to Miles and Huberman’s formula. The results of this study show us that 5-year-old children have mathematcally appropriate understandings about uncertain events, probable events, other possible factors afectng probability, and quantfying probability. Besides, the children who partcipated in the study were having some misconceptons on probability, such as focusing on the consequences of events, “Emotonal decision-making,” “Assuming previously observed outcome will repeat,” and “Assuming increased probability as certain event.” As another result, most of their inferences about probabilistc situatons were not consistent.

Cite this artcle as: Korkmaz, H. İ. (2023). An investgaton of 5-year-old children’s reasoning about probability. HAYEF: Journal of Educaton, 20(3), 231-239.

EISSN 2602-4829